Sit/Start: Floors vs Ceilings

Every player has a floor (their realistic worst-case output) and a ceiling (their realistic best-case). Knowing which one to optimize for is a weekly decision.

Floor plays are your high-volume, low-variance starters. A receiver getting 10 targets in a slot role even in tough matchups, a workhorse RB on a bad team — these guys won't win you the week, but they won't lose it either. Use them when you're a heavy favorite and you just need to not blow up.

Ceiling plays are the home-run swings. A boom-or-bust receiver who runs deep routes (high aDOT — average depth of target), a dual-threat QB in a great matchup, a touchdownSix points scored by carrying or catching the ball into the opponent's end zone, or by recovering a fumble there.-dependent backup. These guys will either win you the week alone or post a 4. Use them when you're a heavy underdog or going against a stacked opponent — you need variance, not consistency.

This is essentially DFS (daily fantasy) thinking applied to season-long head-to-head. The DFS world has been doing this calculus for years: when you need to differentiate from the field, you reach for ceiling. When you're playing for safetyDeep defender. Free safety plays centerfield; strong safety supports the run., you anchor with floor.

The practical rule: check your projected score versus your opponent's. If you're projected to win by 15, start the safe floor every time. If you're projected to lose by 8, start the boom-or-bust play, even at the cost of points-per-game expectation. Optimize for win probability, not point expectation.